Witheringspoon-X disease
“Well, Mrs Blank…”
1. How could it be established that Mrs Blank really does have the disease? A second test? (But that’s not going to be any more accurate.)
Mr Purplepatch tells Mrs Blank that she probably has Witherspoon-X disease, which only affects one in 100,000. The test is 95% accurate.1 To fight the disease, they’ll have to remove Mrs Blank’s kidneys and liver, which means that she’ll need constant medical care. (Hopefully, she’s not an alcoholic otherwise she’s really screwed.)
Should she undertake the treatment or hope the test was wrong?
There’s some maths going on here which I don’t understand exactly. All right, not at all. The brief discussion at the back of the book says that the odds are better than they appear with one correct test for every 4,999 which are wrong. No, I have no idea where that number comes from. Without understanding the odds, I obviously can’t make an adequate judgement.
Instead, let’s look at this according to a strategy I saw online about how to deal with ethical dilemmas. I’m assuming, as any ordinary person would, that the odds are heavily stacked against Mrs Blank. (Blame the non-obvious maths for my ignorance.)
A. The consequences.
a.) Who will be helped?
Mrs Blank.
b.) Who will be harmed?
Mrs Blank. (She needs to be harmed to be helped; a paradox.)
c.) What sort of benefits and harms will arise?
Mrs Blank will live a bit longer, but her quality of life will suck balls. Constant medical treatment means that she’s using up hospital resources which might be better spent dealing with other cases.
d.) What will the short- and long-term effects be?
In the short term, Mrs Blank will survive. In the long term, I don’t expect she’ll live to be 95. There don’t seem to be any long-term considerations.
B. The actions.
The operation is necessary to prevent Witheringspoon-X from killing Mrs Blank.
C. The conclusion.
“Well, Mrs Blank, if you really do have Witheringspoon-X disease, you can hope the test is wrong; or you could elect to have surgery and require constant medical care for the rest of your life… No, I don’t know whether the disease is painful… That’s because the book doesn’t say… Oh for f_ck’s sake, you’re a fictional character. Now go away and die!”
NotesShould she undertake the treatment or hope the test was wrong?
There’s some maths going on here which I don’t understand exactly. All right, not at all. The brief discussion at the back of the book says that the odds are better than they appear with one correct test for every 4,999 which are wrong. No, I have no idea where that number comes from. Without understanding the odds, I obviously can’t make an adequate judgement.
Instead, let’s look at this according to a strategy I saw online about how to deal with ethical dilemmas. I’m assuming, as any ordinary person would, that the odds are heavily stacked against Mrs Blank. (Blame the non-obvious maths for my ignorance.)
A. The consequences.
a.) Who will be helped?
Mrs Blank.
b.) Who will be harmed?
Mrs Blank. (She needs to be harmed to be helped; a paradox.)
c.) What sort of benefits and harms will arise?
Mrs Blank will live a bit longer, but her quality of life will suck balls. Constant medical treatment means that she’s using up hospital resources which might be better spent dealing with other cases.
d.) What will the short- and long-term effects be?
In the short term, Mrs Blank will survive. In the long term, I don’t expect she’ll live to be 95. There don’t seem to be any long-term considerations.
B. The actions.
The operation is necessary to prevent Witheringspoon-X from killing Mrs Blank.
C. The conclusion.
“Well, Mrs Blank, if you really do have Witheringspoon-X disease, you can hope the test is wrong; or you could elect to have surgery and require constant medical care for the rest of your life… No, I don’t know whether the disease is painful… That’s because the book doesn’t say… Oh for f_ck’s sake, you’re a fictional character. Now go away and die!”
After Dilemma 33 proved to be less interesting, will Dilemma 34 be more engaging? You’ll just have to tune in tomorrow.
1. How could it be established that Mrs Blank really does have the disease? A second test? (But that’s not going to be any more accurate.)
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