The fifty-fifty chance

-
Tossers.

Two idiots, Matt and Louie, like gambling, but decide that if they bet against each other, they can’t lose. They toss a coin, the winner getting a pound. Louie keeps calling tails and Matt keeps getting heads. He switches to heads and Matt then gets tails. Louie thinks that the odds of such a thing happening must be slight, but Matt thinks they’re 50-50 every time.

Who’s right?

Matt. There are only two possible outcomes. I don’t know whether it’s possible to calculate the odds of a coin landing heads up n times in a row, but that’s a different thing. Also, the more frequently it lands with one side up has no effect on the event on the next occasion. It wouldn’t matter whether it’d been tails for the past hundred tosses, the odds of a head remain the same.

Tomorrow, there must be dogs on a planet orbiting Sirius. It stands to reason.

Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

FH5, Series 37, Week 4

-
With the return of the academic year I’m probably not going to be posting entries till sometime on Saturdays. I have a fair amount of time on Friday between lunchtime and my return to school to get much of the Festival playlist done, but I also have P1 and P10 classes and on some occasions, am likely to prefer a nap. The treasure hunt, as I discovered, wanted you to add a new part to your Ford Focus. I tried adding a part I’d already bought, but the game was having none of it. But in reality, I assume that this was another attempt to force players to use the Test Track which, I feel, has nothing practical to offer. I ended up doing a wreckage HA because there was one near the location of the treasure chest. The weekly was in the Alfa Romeo Giulia. Job done, but drag racing and drifting? The Audi S1 had no problems with the speed zones. I switched to the 2012 Mini JCW for the Trailblazer because in testing it had no problems hitting the target time and then some. What happened? I kept
Read more

FH5, Series 29, Week 4

-
Two treasure hunts this week. I went fast in a Lancia Delta and got clean racing skills in a Jaguar Project 7. The weekly was in the Ferrari 512S. Again, no upgrades required. Eventlab (1). SS£-FCG – Outlaw Canyon . Nicely built map, but little more than a twisted circle. Annoying. Eventlab (2). Rally Finland . Apart from the checkpoint bug at the end, this was a good idea. A one-third good SWS. Completing this got me the GTA Spano, a car which I’ve barely ever driven in Horizon 4. You get the idea. Eventlab (3). The Round Table 1960s [TA]. I tried with the Mini Traveller. Attractively built circuit, but too bumpy, which made it rather like one of those HW races with the speed bumps – but worse. Eventlab (4). Desert Raceway . I picked the Dodge Viper SR10 ACR (or whatever it’s called; the 2008 model) for a 2nd-and-3rd-gear race. I just managed to avoid an accident at the crossover on the first lap. Having a sharp corner about 50m from the start is a dumb idea. Don’t. Too many of those
Read more

FH5, Series 38, preview

-
Lazy. My thought – to anticipate my post about the final week of Series 37 – is that Series 38 looks a little lazy. The Forzathon Shop seems to be alternating between HW and 10th-anniversary merch. Yes, I’m sure newer players will be delighted to be able to acquire such items if they missed out on them. Four new cars in the playlist. The 1995 Mitsubishi Evo III seems to be a refugee from that popular Forza Motorsport which everyone is playing [ They are? –ed.]. I’m hoping it’ll be decent on dirt, but I already have my go-to Evos for seasonals in the game. I’m also not sure about the 2022 Subaru WRX now that I’ve heard AR12 Nick give it a shrug. Again, I have my preferred, ready-to-go Imprezas/WRX/STi Subarus. Is this like an SUV in that it looks like it ought to be out in the countryside, but never ever strays off tarmac? In other words, it’s a saloon car that aspires to be a rally car. As for the Toyota Chaser, I admit I’ve never heard of it. I assume that it’s a rival to the Nissan
Read more